Recently, someone asked me what cryptocurrency industry terms mean again, and I thought of that black swan event from before. I decided to write an article to clarify this matter. Whether you're a newbie or a seasoned player, after staying in this market for a while, you'll realize that black swan events are truly everywhere.

In simple terms, a black swan is a major event that no one can predict in advance, but in hindsight, everyone feels "it was obvious." The market trend in mid-October last year is an example. When a big influencer spoke out, I sensed that something was bound to happen next. Although I’m not a contract KOL and don’t play much, just watching the charts, I knew this wasn’t just a minor fluctuation but a real black swan. Once a black swan erupts, the market explodes—prices plummet, retail investors panic, institutional capital manipulates, and the entire industry could be turned upside down.

In the crazy crypto market, black swan events occur far more frequently than in traditional finance. They happen suddenly and often. Since I entered the space, I’ve experienced several, and each time I lost money—never caught a cheap deal (haha, don’t follow my example). Common causes of black swans include hacking and theft, exchange collapses, sudden regulatory crackdowns, geopolitical turmoil, or global economic chaos. If I post about it, will Bitcoin’s price fluctuate? Probably not. But big players are different—just a casual comment from a Federal Reserve chair like “hello” or “good afternoon” can move the market. Newbies might not have experienced this, but seasoned traders know how powerful it is.

Actually, the academic definition of a black swan was proposed by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007. It refers to extremely rare, unpredictable events that, in hindsight, seem inevitable. These events often cause intense market shocks, leading to asset price crashes, investor confidence collapse, and even reshaping industry structures. In the high-volatility emerging market of cryptocurrencies, black swan events are the norm. They trigger chain reactions through leverage trading and market interconnectedness, amplifying individual risks.

Honestly, black swans serve both as warnings and opportunities. They remind us to respect this “battlefield,” but also present chances. Whether you get wiped out by a black swan liquidation, profit from shorting, or get rich by bottom-fishing depends entirely on your market understanding, knowledge, and risk management. Make profits and hold onto them; if you lose, don’t blame others. Of course, talent and market sensitivity matter too—some can sense market changes from a single post. Can you do the same with the same information?

In fact, black swan events in crypto are quite frequent. Even a single sentence from a person or platform can trigger a black swan wave. So the most important thing is: maintain respect for this market, keep learning, and accumulate experience. If you don’t know how to learn, remember this: “Among three people, there is always a teacher for me.” Later, I will analyze some historical black swan events and compile a collection for everyone to reference. If there are inaccuracies in the data, feel free to point them out. Thanks for your support.