Just caught something interesting about the timing of the next crypto bull run. The ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7 - highest since 2022 - and it's been above 50 for three straight months now. That's expansion territory after nearly three years of contraction, which historically tends to align with when crypto rallies pick up steam.

Looking back at the pattern, every major bull run (2013, 2017, 2021) followed similar macro recoveries with rising manufacturing and better liquidity conditions. Bitcoin already proved it could push past $100k even during tight financial conditions, so imagine what happens when that liquidity actually flows back into risk assets.

Raoul Pal made an interesting point - he's basically saying don't think about the traditional four-year halving cycle this time. This could be a five-year cycle tied to the broader business cycle, with ISM potentially peaking around 2026. That changes when we should expect the next bull run to actually materialize.

There are really two ways to think about it. The traditional view is that Bitcoin halving events drive the cycle - we saw it in 2020 and again in 2024, with consolidation followed by new highs the next year. But the macro-driven framework suggests the ISM expansion could accelerate things since manufacturing recovery historically means more liquidity flowing into crypto.

What's wild is that Coinbase just surveyed institutional investors and 74 percent expect crypto prices to rise within the next 12 months. Even more telling - 73 percent are planning to increase their exposure to digital assets in 2026. That's not retail FOMO, that's institutional positioning.

The wildcard remains external stuff - geopolitical moves and regulatory decisions could still shift the timeline. But if manufacturing keeps expanding and interest rates eventually ease, you're looking at the conditions that typically fuel when the next crypto bull run actually takes off. Pretty worth monitoring if you're trying to time your moves.