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YouTuber Crypto Prediction of Bitcoin’s Lowest Point and Bear Market Cycle
Bitcoin’s bear market bottom may already have formed at the US$60,000 level, according to Carl Runefelt and David Wulschner, two highly watched European crypto YouTubers. Both believe that this cycle never reached the euphoria that usually triggers a decline of up to 80%.
With Bitcoin’s price now trading around US$76,500, the predictions from the two YouTubers above appear to be starting to come true. Runefelt from The Moon Show said that US$60,000 is the real-time bottom point, while Wulschner from Crypto Familie sees a strong accumulation zone with limited downside risk.
YouTuber Says the Bitcoin Floor Is at US$60,000
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Runefelt shared the moment when he made that prediction.
“When Bitcoin broke down to 60K, I thought the value was around 59 point something… I even made a tweet and a video on the same day that I was sure this was the bottom of the bear market,”
The Swedish creator emphasized that this bear market does not require a drastic drop, because the previous peak was not accompanied by speculative euphoria, which usually occurs before a major sell-off.
“We never experienced euphoria. We never saw such a bustling altcoin season. We also haven’t ever seen Bitcoin surge to stratospheric euphoria levels where everyone in the world is talking about it,”
He also pointed out that the Relative Strength Index shows oversold signals that were last seen during the mass selling period of the COVID era. With Michael Saylor and other major institutions still continuing to accumulate, Runefelt said the potential for further downside is very small.
Wulschner Sees Limited Downside Potential
Wulschner, the host of Crypto Familie, largely agrees but leaves open the possibility of a deeper test.
“I think it would be a mistake if we expect the price to fall below US$50,000,”
Wulschner’s support box is in the range of US$52,000–US$53,000, similar to the 23% retracement of the all-time high that occurred in the 2017 cycle. He believes the current zone is an area of very strong accumulation.
He also maps the ‘max pain’ zone to the US$39,000 level at the Fibonacci 0.768 point, although he says this scenario is unlikely. Wulschner also highlights the role of Michael Saylor and company treasuries as a structural floor that prevents further downside.
The Echo of Benjamin Cowen’s Apathetic Theory
The predictions of these two YouTubers are consistent with the analysis by Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, who states that this cycle reached its peak not because of euphoria, but because of apathy. Because the peak was not the result of mania, the 80% bear market decline pattern like in previous years cannot be applied in a straightforward way.
Cowen says this cycle is structurally different, since altcoin rotation generally requires euphoric retail capital flows—something that has not happened yet. Since major, mania-driven capital outflows have not come, the US$60,000 level today could hold as a floor without needing extreme corrections like in 2018.
Risks That Could Derail This Prediction
Runefelt highlights situations that could invalidate that prediction.
“If we see more wars or black swan events, or Trump writes a ridiculous tweet, then yes, the price could drop further,”
Both creators emphasize the current zone as a strategic moment for long-term accumulation, not just trading. Wulschner closes with a firm instruction.
“Profits aren’t made during a bull market. You have to set targets, lay the foundation, and establish your main positions in your portfolio during the bear market,”