Recently, I’ve been watching everyone line up stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and the market chart one-to-one, and it makes me want to laugh a bit and also makes me a little nervous... Correlation really doesn’t equal causation. When stablecoins increase, it could mean people are coming into the market and buying in—but it could also just be that someone is switching to a different “shell” and leaving it sitting on-chain. When money comes into the ETF, there could simultaneously be others selling off positions in the OTC market at the same time; in plain terms, the information is incomplete. And those big on-chain transfers, plus sudden changes in exchange hot and cold wallets—lots of people immediately shout “smart money is coming” / “smart money is leaving.” Anyway, I’m not going to let myself get dragged into the narrative right now. After lowering my expectations, it feels surprisingly easy—I’ll just follow the rules and wait patiently for the time to come. Don’t treat every anomaly as a signal.