#FedHoldsRateButDividesDeepen

Fed Held Rates Steady, But the FOMC Is Deeply Divided

The May 1, 2025 FOMC meeting has ended. The Fed kept rates steady at 5.25%–5.50% as expected. This marks the 7th consecutive hold. But the real story isn’t in the decision text — it’s in the vote split.

Verified details: According to the Fed’s official statement, out of 12 members, 2 wanted a 25bp cut, while 1 member wanted a 25bp hike. The remaining 9 voted to hold steady. For the first time in 2 years, there was a member calling for a hike. The decision was not unanimous.

Chair Powell said in the press conference, “Inflation is still above the 2% target, but we are monitoring new risks driven by oil.” The March projections had 3 rate cuts for 2025. Now, according to CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in just 1 cut, and only in December.

Why should crypto care?
1. Liquidity timeline extended: As rate-cut expectations get pushed back, the USD stays strong. As long as DXY holds above 106, it gets harder for BTC to maintain levels above 70k. 2. Division = uncertainty: When disagreement within the FOMC rises, markets struggle to find direction. If the VIX rises, altcoins are usually the first to be sold. 3. Dovish signal delayed: Powell made it clear that “we’re in no hurry to cut.” The short-term wind has turned against risk assets.
On Gate.io, BTC wicked to $62,800 after the decision, then recovered to 64k. Futures funding rates turned neutral. For May, cautious longs with stop-losses look reasonable.

My take: If the Fed is split, we should split our positions too. This is not the time to go all-in on one direction. How did you read this decision? Do you think we’ll see no cuts at all in 2025?

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Note: This post is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).