Yesterday, I read a report about the forecast for the gas market, and a certain picture quickly came to mind. Even though everyone is talking about supply threats from LNG shipments from the Middle East, European gas prices are expected to fall. It sounds strange, but analysts at ANZ explain it by competition from Asia—everyone is chasing the same LNG tankers to refill empty storage.

Weather forecasts are also falling into place for us. The cold over northwestern Europe is temporarily supporting demand, which slows the pace of stockpiling. On the exchange in the Netherlands, the benchmark TTF fell by 1.6% to 41.74 euro per MWh. That’s a pretty solid move downward.

Interestingly, forecasts for natgas have improved thanks to negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The conflict is not being prolonged, and concerns are easing. I think natgas will be under downward pressure over this week—the trend looks to be over 4% down. I’m waiting to see how this plays out.