I recently came across an old quite interesting chart called "Periods When to Make Money" — a theory from the 19th century about predicting market cycles. Interestingly, it is still referenced by many people today.

This chart is said to have been developed by Samuel Benner, a farmer from Ohio, in 1875 in his book "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices." Later, George Titch adjusted and popularized a different version. The basic idea is quite simple — dividing years into 3 types based on recurring economic cycles.

First are the panic years — years expected to have major financial crises. The list includes 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, 2035, 2053. Second are the good times — prosperous years when prices are high, suitable for selling assets. These years include 1926, 1946, 1962, 1980, 1989, 1999, 2007, 2016, 2026, 2043. Third are the hard times — years when prices are low, ideal for buying. The list includes 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2012, 2023.

Its purpose is very clear — to help investors identify profitable periods by predicting when the market will go up or down. It sounds reasonable, but the question is: is it accurate?

In reality, no. This theory is based on the assumption that economic cycles repeat regularly and can be predicted, but markets are much more complex. Political, geopolitical, technological factors, and unexpected events can change everything in unpredictable ways.

Many economists acknowledge that pinpointing market timing accurately in the long term is nearly impossible. Even similar cycles do not repeat exactly the same way each time. Therefore, although this "periods when to make money" chart is an interesting historical effort, we should not consider it a reliable prediction of the future.

Instead, investors should focus on long-term strategies, diversify their portfolios, and avoid trying to predict short-term fluctuations based on such old theories. The real money-making periods are not about catching the exact right moment, but about patience and discipline.