There is a reliable sign that the market has shifted from enthusiasm to irrational optimism: the cost of capital approaches zero. When risk is no longer factored into the price, discipline also disappears. Questions about investment payback, about the consequences of potential failures — all of this is sacrificed in pursuit of quick profits. Capital today is allocated almost uncontrollably. Entrepreneurs have learned: adding "AI" to the description of any product means opening many doors. Corporations are making large-scale AI purchases, mostly within R&D — trying to understand what this technology means for their business before a competitor overtakes them. At the same time, a recycling mechanism is operating: a significant portion of AI companies' revenue comes from other AI companies buying computing power and services. Each dollar is considered to be worth ten. This is the problem of short-term exaggeration. The path from revolutionary technology to sustainable value is never straightforward — the dot-com era proved that. We tend to overestimate the short-term effect and underestimate the long-term one. Right now, we are precisely in the phase of overvaluation.

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