Lately I've been looking at the interest rate trend again, and I feel that its impact on crypto is quite "slow": it's not that a rate hike today causes a crash tomorrow, but rather that everyone's risk appetite gradually pulls back, and positions shift from "daring to hold" to "lighten up first." When liquidity is tight, the most obvious thing is that you don't even dare to add to your retracements, fearing you'll have to wait even longer after doing so.

Adding to that, in some regions, taxes are being raised and regulations are tightening and loosening intermittently; expectations around deposits and withdrawals actually tend to influence sentiment first: with the same price fluctuations, those who can smoothly deposit and withdraw are more willing to hold, having a clearer bottom line; conversely, it becomes more short-term, and positions are more fragmented.

What I fear most isn't losses, but the uncertainty of policy or channel changes where "you think you can move, but in the end, you can't." Anyway, my current approach is pretty simple: watch the direction of interest rates and US dollar liquidity, keep positions smaller, and wait for clearer signals. That's it for now.