Thoughts on public blockchains in 2026:

Thoughts on Public Blockchains in 2026:

1. The strategy of “controlling inflation + high-interest savings + DeFi trifecta + founder memes + our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC selling to liquid funds” is no longer viable.

2. This is not only a problem Monad and MegaETH need to face, but also Rise, Fogo, and even N1. Old chains, it depends—Sei and Polygon still seem to be struggling, most have already given up.

3. The loyalty of projects incubated on day 1 of public chains remains questionable, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most new chains deploying are targeting the public chain foundation’s treasury. Once they raise funds through endorsements and attract the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chains to support valuation, 2) to switch to other chains and compete.

4. As a result, some founders no longer call themselves part of xx ecosystem, but say xx chain is our “GTM Partner.”

5. So, ecosystem projects are too weak to support, or too strong and end up stabbing their backers like Lü Bu.

6. The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended, and the valuation model based on MEV revenue needs revision (here @LeePima). Today’s public chains are more about carrying a controllable system rather than possibilities, doing fintech within a controllable economic system.

7. Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, top-down dev shops and CVCs, with the main role of the treasury being M&A—crazy vertical mergers rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there will no longer be kingmakers like Solana (cc. @mablejiang).

8. In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource advantages and regional differences.

9. The final question is: how should we model FDV at this point to speculate accordingly? And the skill sets are entirely geared toward token-selling, money-squashing economic models—growth managers, operations, etc. The old ticket to ride may no longer fit the new era’s ship.