I saw a news story that HBO is preparing a documentary that allegedly will reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. Honestly, it looks like a good marketing move, but it has once again fueled speculation in the crypto community. On Polymarket, bets on different candidates have literally skyrocketed.

And here, Nick Szabo is leading in these debates — his chances are estimated at double digits, while the other contenders barely reach single digits. Interesting, why him specifically?

The thing is, Nick Szabo is a cryptographer, programmer, and legal scholar with a serious background. Back in 1989, he graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in computer science, then earned a doctorate in law. But most importantly, his contribution to blockchain began even before Bitcoin appeared.

In 1994, Szabo introduced the concept of smart contracts — essentially, he tried to embed legal obligations into digital code. This became the foundation for the entire blockchain industry as we know it today. And in 1998, he proposed bit gold — a digital currency that operated on proof-of-work and solved the double-spending problem. Sounds familiar, right?

Technically, bit gold was a bit rough: it used cryptographic chains but relied on a quorum of addresses instead of computational power, which made it vulnerable to Sybil attacks. But conceptually, it was very close to what Bitcoin later implemented.

Szabo himself described the problem like this: people depend on trust in a third party regarding the value of money, and the history of the 20th century showed how this can lead to inflation and chaos. It was this problem that Bitcoin tried to solve ten years later, when Satoshi published his white paper in October 2008.

What else supports the theory about Nick Szabo? First, his technical skills — he clearly had the competence to create Bitcoin. Second, analysts have noticed that Szabo’s writing style is remarkably similar to Satoshi’s. Both referenced economist Karl Menger. Third, Szabo is known for his obsession with privacy, which aligns with Satoshi’s behavior.

And here’s the paradox: at every step, Nick Szabo vehemently denies being Satoshi Nakamoto. Meanwhile, those who openly claim this crown are almost certainly not him. Bitcoin’s history teaches us one thing — the true creator will most likely remain unknown.

In any case, the HBO documentary promises to be interesting. Although I doubt it will truly reveal the truth.