Weekly Bitcoin Outlook: Two Months of Decline and Two Months of Rise, What's Next?


- Technical Analysis: Buyers Still in Control
Bitcoin price rose over 6% last week, closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490 (derived from its lowest point in August 2024 at $49,000 to its all-time high in October 2025 at $126,199), a major resistance zone. As this week begins, Bitcoin faces slight resistance near the $80,000 barrier and is currently trading at a low of $77,400 on Friday.

If Bitcoin continues upward, the rally could extend toward the psychological barrier of $80,000, then toward the 100-week exponential moving average at $82,482.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart indicates 46, approaching the neutral 50 level, suggesting waning bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same chart showed a bullish crossover in mid-April, which remains valid, with an upward-sloping histogram supporting the bullish hypothesis.

Weekly BTC/USDT Chart

On the daily chart, the cryptocurrency king maintains a short-term bullish trend as the price stays above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, slightly below $75,700, within the upper part of the previous channel, which now acts as immediate support around $75,680.

The RSI on the daily chart near 58 indicates positive momentum but not overbought, while the negative MACD histogram below zero suggests the bullish trend is progressing against a broader weak momentum backdrop.

On the downside, initial support is observed near the previous channel top around $75,680 and the 100-day EMA at $75,675, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the January high to the February low) at $74,487, and the 50-day EMA around $73,813, reinforcing a deeper demand zone.

On the upside, the 50% retracement at $78,962 represents the first notable resistance, ahead of the psychological $80,000 barrier, while the 200-day EMA near $82,277 and the 61.8% retracement around $83,437 are close below the horizontal line at $84,410, forming a broader range that could limit the next upward wave.

Daily BTC/USDT Chart
$BTC
BTC2.19%
View Original
post-image
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pin