Recently, I came across a quite interesting shift in international politics. While the whole world was focused on the US-Iran conflict, Turkey suddenly stepped forward — not to help the US, but to publicly condemn Israel and the US for attacking Iran, warning that the Middle East might be "dragged into a firestorm."

Many people found it surprising, after all, Turkey is a NATO member. Logically, if the big brother is fighting, the little brother shouldn’t be helping or undermining him, right? But Erdogan’s logic is actually very pragmatic.

Think about it, Turkey shares a border of over 500 kilometers with Iran. Once chaos erupts in the Middle East, the first to suffer will be Turkey. Refugees will flood northward, and the first stop will be Turkey. During the Syrian war, it already had to bear over 3.5 million refugees, with domestic employment squeezed tight, and the economy was already sluggish with high inflation. Another wave of refugees? That would be the last straw.

Erdogan is well aware that although the US claims Turkey is a core ally, behind the scenes, it’s doing things that harm Turkey’s interests. Supporting Kurdish militants, sanctions for purchasing Russian missile defense systems, kicking Turkey out of the F-35 program — in the US’s eyes, Turkey is just a tool, useful when needed, discarded when not.

Moreover, Turkey’s economic ties with Iran are deeply intertwined. Bilateral trade exceeds 10 billion dollars annually, with agricultural products, building materials, and energy all closely linked. If Turkey follows US sanctions against Iran, its own economy will be heavily impacted, and ordinary people and businesses will suffer.

More critically, Turkey controls the Bosporus Strait. About 3% of global maritime oil shipments pass through here. If the US and Iran go to war, Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz, and at that point, Turkey’s straits will become the global energy transportation bottleneck. This leverage allows Turkey to play Europe and the US more effectively than just being a US subordinate.

Erdogan also has bigger plans. He wants Turkey to become a regional power in the Middle East with more influence. With the US and Iran at each other’s throats, Qatar and Iraq are acting as mediators. How could Turkey fall behind? By standing out to condemn and speak for Iran, it’s actually trying to actively intervene in the conflict and serve as a mediator. As long as Turkey can facilitate US-Iran negotiations, its position in the Middle East will be greatly enhanced.

Of course, he’s not naive. Turkey has strengthened its border air defense systems, increased special forces deployment, and upgraded drone and missile surveillance. While loudly opposing war, it’s quietly preparing for the worst. It’s also secretly coordinating positions with Russia — despite tensions in Syria, both share the goal of preventing the US-Iran war from escalating. With Russia as a backer, Turkey can stand firmer against the US.

In essence, this is pragmatism. Small countries survive best in the great power game by being realistic. There are no eternal allies, only eternal interests. As a regional power, Turkey must prioritize its own national interests and not follow the US blindly down the path of destruction.

During the Gulf War, Turkey followed the US to sanction Iraq, but as a result, its economy collapsed, inflation soared, and domestic discontent grew. Erdogan remembers this lesson well and doesn’t want to repeat it.

The US thinks it’s the global boss, and all allies must listen to it. But it forgets that allies also have their own interests and bottom lines. Turkey’s move is actually a warning to the US: stop acting recklessly with your hegemonial power, and stop treating allies as tools. Otherwise, your allies will all turn away from you.