a16z Crypto Policy Director: The prediction market is essentially an information machine; AI agents + public blockchains will give rise to entirely new business models

Golden Finance reported that on May 2, Miles Jennings, the policy chief of a16z crypto, said in a post: “We have made an official response regarding the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed rulemaking matter for the prediction market.
A prediction market is one of the strongest and most powerful tools available today, capable of transforming dispersed, fragmented information into effective information with practical reference value. Unlike public opinion polls, prediction markets have two key features: round-the-clock continuous operation and an incentive mechanism. Participants put their own money behind their views; therefore, the market price reflects real stances rather than arbitrary subjective opinions.
Prediction markets are now entering a phase of rapid development. Kalshi’s weekly trading volume has surged tenfold this year, reaching $3 billion. But even more worth attention are the future development trends: AI agents can process massive amounts of information and autonomously execute trades on permissionless blockchains without needing approval. The combination of these two technologies will give rise to an entirely new industry landscape far beyond the current scale of the sector.
Although the outlook is broad, regulatory uncertainty is threatening the future development of this industry.
The solutions we propose will help the industry unlock its potential: clearly reaffirming CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, improving mechanisms for handling contract disputes, strictly controlling market manipulation and insider trading, adopting a case-by-case assessment model for determinations of the public interest, and exploring diversified pathways for compliance implementation.
The significance of prediction markets is not just about placing bets on all kinds of events; at its core, they are information machines. The regulatory rules the CFTC is currently drafting will directly determine whether this technology will be restrained at the budding stage or able to fully unleash its developmental potential.
We look forward to the committee seizing this opportunity.”