Over the past couple of days, I’ve seen people use stablecoin supply curves to line up with ETF net inflows, saying, “Money is coming in, so it’s definitely going up.” I’m a bit skeptical… Correlation really shouldn’t be taken as causation. More stablecoins could just be an off-chain “shell swap” that sits idle, or cross-chain transfers back and forth, or even thicker market-maker inventory—so it doesn’t necessarily directly turn into spot buying demand. The ETF side feels more like a slowly permeating channel, and it’s not on the same rhythm as on-chain sentiment.

For now, I’m still sticking to the same old approach: split the position into a few layers, hold the core firmly, and run smaller, low-correlation strategies on the outside. When I see the data, I treat it like a thermometer—not a steering wheel. By the way, recently there’s been more criticism of miners/validators’ income, MEV, and fairness in transaction ordering, and I get it… Sometimes the on-chain “looks really lively” vibe might just be noisier due to matching and front-running, so don’t let surface-level traffic push you off your plan. For now, that’s it—I’ll wait until the signals are more consistent before adding more.