Analysis for BTC - USDT chart now: Should I open a Long or Short position with TP & SL

Based on the latest BTC market data at $78,299.8 (+2.58%), here's my technical analysis and trade recommendation:

Current Technical Picture

Short-term (15m): Bullish structure intact

• MA7 > MA30 > MA120 (uptrend alignment)
• PDI (27.99) > MDI (22.04) with ADX 42.5 - strong momentum
• SAR at $78,176 below price - acting as dynamic support

Medium-term (4h): Overbought signals flashing

• CCI at 187 (overbought zone)
• WR at -13.55 (overbought)
• SAR at $77,407 above recent highs - bearish reversal signal
• MACD showing bearish divergence (price lower high, MACD higher)

Daily: Mixed signals

• SAR at $75,328 well below price - strong bullish trend
• WR at -19.87 (overbought territory)

Key Market Context

• Fear & Greed: 26 (Fear) - contrarian bullish sentiment
• ETF Flows: $20.2B inflow in April, 8 consecutive days positive
• Institutional: Strategy added 3,273 BTC at -$77,906; BlackRock IBIT +$20.13B
• Liquidation zones: $72,914 (longs) / $80,474 (shorts)

Trade Recommendation

SHORT Bias - Higher Probability Setup

The 4h overbought conditions + SAR bearish flip + MACD divergence suggest near-term correction is likely before any sustained move higher.

Short Position Setup:

• Entry: $78,300-$78,800 (current zone or on weak retest of $79,000)
• TP1: $76,500 (recent support cluster)
• TP2: $75,500 (daily SAR support / psychological level)
• SL: $79,500 (above local high, gives -1:2.5 R/R to TP1)

Alternative Long Setup (if bullish structure holds):

• Wait for pullback to $75,500-$76,500
• TP: $80,000-$81,200 (short squeeze zone)
• SL: $74,200

Risk Management: Given the strong ETF inflows and institutional buying, any short should be treated as a counter-trend scalp rather than a swing position.
Reduce position size accordingly.