Recently, I saw someone using the supply curve of stablecoins to "explain" ETF inflows and outflows, as well as off-chain market sentiment. Basically, they are treating correlation as causation. An increase in stablecoins could mean someone is preparing to buy, or it could just be arbitrage, market making, or moving assets on-chain; who ultimately ends up with them is a completely different matter... I've seen too many narratives that force logic when the market heats up, so a crash later isn't surprising.

By the way, I want to complain that Layer 2 is now more noisy about TPS, fees, and subsidies than a marketplace. It looks lively, but I care more about "what's left after subsidies stop." There's so much information that it can be a bit anxiety-inducing. Right now, I filter in two steps: first, look at real on-chain usage/retention (don't just look at transaction counts), then see if the protocol has written incentives into sustainable long-term rules. As for everything else, I’ll just treat it as background noise.