Just came across this fascinating historical framework that honestly might explain a lot about market timing. There's this old economic cycle theory from Samuel Benner dating back to 1875 that's been floating around, and it actually breaks down periods when to make money into surprisingly logical patterns.

So here's the core idea: Benner observed that financial markets tend to move in three distinct phases that repeat roughly every 18-20 years. The first type is what he called panic years – these are the brutal ones where financial crises hit, markets collapse, and everyone's panicking. We're talking about years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and if the pattern holds, around 2035 and 2053. The advice here is pretty clear: don't panic sell during these years. Just hold tight.

Then you've got the boom periods – the good times when prices are surging and markets are recovering strong. This is actually when you want to be taking profits and selling assets. Looking at the historical data, years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and apparently 2026 fall into this category. These are your exit windows.

The third type is the recession and hard times phase – when prices are depressed and the economy is struggling. This is actually the sweet spot for buying. Think 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023. These are the periods when smart money accumulates stocks, land, and commodities at bargain prices, then holds until the next boom cycle arrives.

The whole strategy basically comes down to this: buy low during recessions, hold through the panic years, then sell high during booms. It's almost too simple, but the historical pattern is weirdly consistent. Of course, this isn't gospel – markets are shaped by politics, wars, technological shifts, and countless other variables. But as a long-term cyclical framework for thinking about periods when to make money, it's worth keeping in your mental toolkit. Not a prediction, just a historical perspective that might help you think differently about market timing.