BTC 15-minute short-term rally of 0.62%: ETF net subscriptions combined with short squeeze driving the price higher

On May 1, 2026, from 13:45 to 14:00 (UTC), the BTC price return was +0.62%, with a price range of 78,177.1-78,918.9 USDT and an amplitude of 0.95%. This period was characterized by a short-term rapid surge, with market trading activity significantly increasing, overall sentiment leaning bullish but with heightened volatility.

The main drivers of this anomaly came from two aspects: firstly, mainstream US spot BTC ETFs continued to record net inflows, significantly boosting spot market demand and providing a price bottom support; secondly, a short squeeze occurred in the derivatives market. Between April 30 and May 1, 2026, the 7-day change in BTC perpetual contract open interest was -3%, and the funding rate shifted from positive to negative (from 0.33% down to -0.17%), with a market structure leaning bearish, causing short positions to be involuntarily liquidated, and some short squeeze pressure pushing the spot price higher in the short term.

At the same time, multiple factors resonated to amplify the volatility. The global cryptocurrency market’s 24-hour trading volume reached approximately $124.54 billion, a 69% increase from the previous day, with ample liquidity and increased buying power. The net inflow into exchanges on that day was 1,559.5 BTC, significantly higher than the previous day, with large BTC transfers into exchanges raising potential selling pressure, but offset by ETF-driven spot buying demand hedging against actual selling. Additionally, on-chain monitoring detected a transfer of 500 BTC from a US mining company to institutional wallets, increasing market attention to old coin movements, but no concentrated selling was observed, with limited actual impact.

Short-term volatility risks still exist. If ETF subscriptions slow down or exchange net inflows remain high without corresponding buying demand, selling pressure could increase. Changes in funding rates in the derivatives market can serve as short-term market indicators, and close attention should be paid to the critical point where they shift from negative to positive. It is recommended to monitor ETF capital flows, exchange net inflow changes, and large on-chain wallet movements.