#Gate广场五月交易分享

BTC Current Price Short Selling Plan

Aggressive Short Position

Short Entry Range: 78,300 – 78,600

Stop Loss: 79,200

Take Profit: 77,600 / 76,900

Logic: The current price is around 78,465, with 15-minute RSI=78, CCI=127, WR=-17 all in overbought territory; 4-hour CCI=198, WR=-9 also in overbought, indicating a rapid short-term rally; at the same time, both 15-minute and 4-hour SAR have flipped above the K-line, signaling a bearish trend. ETF net outflows continue (BTC ETF daily -1,826 units, about -137.77M), Coinbase premium has fallen to a 4-week low and turned negative, indicating institutions are selling rather than buying. Overbought + institutional exit → increased probability of a pullback after a rally, so a direct short near the current price is justified.

Conservative Short Position

Short Entry Range: 79k – 79,400

Stop Loss: 80k

Take Profit: 77,500 / 76,500

Logic: If the aggressive short is stopped out, it indicates the price continues to surge toward the 79k area. 79k is a dense resistance zone from previous highs (your long strategy specifically emphasizes "do not chase longs above 77k," and the upper resistance is an extension of this zone). Reaching here is a typical "trap for longs" — the short-term sentiment is hottest, but real buying volume cannot keep up (ETF net outflows + Coinbase negative premium), making it easy for longs to get caught. Shorting within this range offers better safety margins, with a stop loss set at 80k to allow enough room.

Long-term Short Position (Extreme High-Altitude Short)

Short Entry Range: 79,800 – 80,200

Stop Loss: 80,800

Target: 77k / 75,500

Logic: 80k is a major psychological and technical resistance level. If the price surges near 80k, it indicates extreme overheat sentiment, with overbought indicators fully diverging, and institutions likely to increase selling pressure (ETF outflows accelerate). A pullback after reaching 80k is often more intense, representing a "final surge before a correction" — a reversal zone after extreme sentiment. But note that the daily SAR remains in a bullish trend, so long-term shorts are counter-trend operations, with minimal position sizes.

⚠️ Key Points for Short Selling:

Shorting is a contrarian move: daily SAR is bullish, 4-hour moving averages are golden cross, the overall trend remains bullish. Short only during overbought pullback windows, with smaller positions and tighter stops than long setups.

Do not chase shorts below 76k: 76k-76.1k is the 24-hour low and lower Bollinger band area, where support rebounds are likely, making shorting very risky.

Strictly enforce stop losses on shorts: contrarian trades have little room for error; exit immediately when stop is hit, do not hold through losses.

⚠️ The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; profits and losses are your own responsibility.