#Gate广场五月交易分享 Next week’s outlook: the core won’t be in the candlesticks, but in data and geopolitics. On Monday, the ISM Services PMI will be released; if the price components keep rising, the pricing of “no rate cuts for the whole year” will become even more entrenched. Multiple Fed officials are speaking in rapid succession—whether Kashkari’s dissenting vote can spread is the biggest highlight. If someone else calls for another rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields will have to climb further. Iran has just passed its latest proposal through Pakistan; with the negotiation window extremely narrow, as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t unblocked for a day, oil prices can’t stay suppressed. The only remaining question in Bitcoin’s script is whether it will break through $79,000. The April rally that was forced up by contracts can’t be held by spot—so it will have to be paid back sooner or later. Friday’s Deribit options expiration is a volatility window; open interest concentrated in the $75K-$80K range means both the whales and retail traders are betting on direction. But flip it around: with funding rates negative to this extent, if a sufficiently weighty catalyst arrives—such as progress on a U.S.-Iran framework agreement or non-farm payrolls coming in far below expectations—short covering could be quite brutal. This market isn’t short on narratives; it’s short on a decisive final hammer. Whoever gives the first cue on direction will harvest everyone. To the newcomers at the Fed, hope your AI theories are useful...