BTC 15-minute short-term rally of 0.57%: Large capital inflows combined with leveraged liquidations driving a short-term rebound

Between May 1, 2026, 13:00 and 13:15 (UTC), the BTC price experienced a short-term surge, with a return of +0.57%, and a price fluctuation range of 77,898.4 to 78,429.2 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.68%. This movement occurred against the backdrop of increased overall market volatility, with on-chain data showing large capital flows combined with derivatives market position adjustments, triggering a short-term price rebound.

The main drivers of this movement stem from two aspects: first, a significant increase in large single BTC net inflows exceeding $10 million, with on-chain data indicating that on April 30, ultra-large transfers resulted in a net inflow of 1,712.92 BTC, directly impacting market liquidity; second, over $110 million worth of BTC leveraged positions were liquidated within the day, temporarily intensifying price volatility but not causing systemic risk.

Additionally, institutional behavior resonated with macroeconomic conditions. ETF holdings continue to provide support below, with current BTC ETF holdings around 1.4 million coins, and daily net inflows of $180 million to $250 million, though recent inflow speeds have slowed. Meanwhile, institutional investors increased their holdings of put options to hedge downside risks. The Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, combined with geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, has led to a general decline in market risk appetite, suppressing further upward price movement.

In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in net inflows and outflows on exchanges, leverage ratios and liquidation data, as well as ETF capital flows. If macro sentiment remains weak and leveraged positions continue to accumulate, further volatility could be triggered. It is recommended to monitor support levels around $77,800 and resistance levels near $78,500.