Judging by this, there’s no way to expect US inflation to be brought under control—the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts for the second half of the year are basically off the table. The market is still betting on a rate cut in September, but the probability in the betting market hovers around 50%. Once a military action is carried out, oil prices will surge, the CPI will rebound accordingly, and the Fed won’t just be unable to cut rates—being able to keep things stable without raising rates would already be a huge relief.

In the short term, safe-haven assets such as gold, leading oil producers, and the US dollar will once again be in demand, while profits in high–energy-consuming industries such as aviation, container shipping, and manufacturing will face pressure. Iran’s response has also been extremely tough, claiming a “destructive” retaliation—so the direction this matter takes is hard to predict.

What the market is pricing in is no longer whether they can “talk things through,” but whether this oil pipeline across the strait “will be shut off.” $BTC #WCTC交易王PK