Bitcoin (BTC): $77,000 Tug-of-War, Bulls and Bears Clash Intensifies

According to Gate.io market monitoring, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,000. Its 24-hour price change is approximately 1.92%. During the day, it reached a high of $77,400 before pulling back slightly. Previously, Bitcoin faced clear sell pressure in the $79,000-$80,000 resistance zone, briefly retracing to around $75,500. It is currently in a rebound and repair phase.

Macro: A double squeeze of geopolitical risks and a sentiment freeze. U.S. Vice President Vance confirmed that U.S.-Iran negotiations failed to reach an agreement, and differences between the two sides remain obvious. After the news was released, Bitcoin briefly fell below $72,000. In his latest remarks, Powell said that "energy and geopolitical shocks have not yet reached their peak," which significantly lowered the market’s expectations for rate cuts this year. On Polymarket, the probability of "no rate cuts until 2026" rose to 59%. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 26, putting the market in a "panic" state.

ETF flows show signs of recovery. On April 30, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $14.76 million in net inflows, ending the prior three consecutive days of capital outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributed the majority of the inflows. The marginal improvement in institutional demand is one of the few positive signals in the current market.

Technical analysis: Competition at key levels intensifies. Analysts point out that around $77,500, roughly $8.5 billion in sell pressure has accumulated, forming short-term suppression. On the support side, Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that $74,700-$75,000 is the concentrated cost-basis area for short-term holders; if the price breaks below it, the next target would point to around $68,000. In the derivatives market, if Bitcoin drops another $5,000 from the current level, it could trigger liquidations of approximately $6.8 billion in leveraged long positions.

Order entry strategy

Long strategy (conservative): Build positions in batches within the $74,500-$75,000 range. Set a stop-loss below $73,500. The first target is $77,500, and the second target is $80,000.

Long strategy (aggressive): If the price volume is effectively able to hold above $78,000, you can lightly chase a long position. Set a stop-loss at $76,500. Targets are $80,000-$82,000.

Short strategy (short-term): When price meets resistance and pulls back in the $77,500-$78,000 area, try a light short. Set a stop-loss above $79,000. Targets are $75,000-$75,500.

Catalysts to watch: The White House hints that, within the next few weeks, it may announce a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve arrangement. Seed funding would come from 200,000 BTC seized by the government. If this narrative materializes, it is expected to boost long-term confidence.

Key support: $75,000 → $74,500 → $72,000

Key resistance: $78,000 → $80,000 → $82,000
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