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The ultimate self-defense technique: I win no matter who wins
In response to Elon Musk’s prediction of a divine battle between Ultraman and other gods, the best strategy is not to pick a side, but to build a portfolio that "wins no matter who wins."
Currently, "Yes" is 72%, "No" is 28%. My approach is to calculate a set of buy ratios to ensure that as long as the verdict is out and the result is unique, my total holdings will definitely yield a positive return. This requires sacrificing the chance for huge profits but gains zero risk.
The judgment logic is simple: I don’t care where the truth lies; I only care about the arbitrage opportunity when the sum of probabilities exceeds 100%. If the probability of "No" drops below 25% due to panic in the market, then the value proposition appears. At this point, adding a few more positions completely hedges the risk. Sit tight and hold on, making a steady profit is the real gain.
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