[Middle East · USA] Latest Situation Overview | May 1

U.S.-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, with core disagreements still unresolved. Trump claims that only "a few people" are aware of the negotiations and threatens to extend sanctions to pressure Iran. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slightly increased but remains largely stagnant, with Iran pushing for a "toll" system for passage. The Lebanon-Israel border situation continues to worsen, with Hezbollah drones posing new threats to the Israeli military. Yemen's Houthi forces threaten to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Houthrot announces a suspension of Red Sea routes. Additionally, the UAE officially withdraws from OPEC+ on May 1, further impacting the international energy landscape.

1. U.S.-Iran Negotiation Standoff: Both sides stick to their positions, prospects for talks bleak

Since the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran took effect on April 8, it has been extended multiple times, but face-to-face negotiations have yet to restart. Pakistani diplomats previously stated that negotiations are "at an impasse" and progress is "very slow." Iran denies that negotiations can be expected in the short term and refuses to accept the U.S. demand to make its nuclear program a precondition, insisting that nuclear issues be discussed only after the war is officially over.

Facing the deadlock, Trump stated on April 30 (local time) that, apart from himself and a few others, no one knows the actual progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, and he insists that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. He claims Iran "really wants to reach an agreement." Trump also said that the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran "is working," and claimed Iran's "economy is collapsing." Furthermore, Trump warned that the blockade of Iranian ports might be extended to increase pressure on its economy and oil exports, forcing Iran to reach an agreement quickly.

In previous negotiations, the U.S. demanded Iran suspend nuclear activities for 20 years and transfer all enriched uranium, but Iran "firmly rejected" these demands. Regarding reports of "chaos and internal fighting" within Iran's decision-making circles, Iran's Vice Speaker of Parliament responded officially, clarifying that negotiations through Pakistani channels were launched with the direct approval of the Supreme Leader.

2. Trump’s diplomatic and security moves

"60-day war authority" claim suspended. Since the U.S. government officially notified Congress on March 2 of plans to launch military strikes against Iran, the 60-day limit for the President to use force without Congressional approval was due to expire on May 1. However, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect on April 8, meaning the 60-day period has been "paused or suspended," and the Trump administration currently does not need to seek Congressional authorization for military actions.

U.S. plans to deploy "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles. The U.S. Central Command has submitted a request to deploy hypersonic missiles to the Middle East. If approved, it will be the first deployment of hypersonic missiles in combat by the U.S., potentially used to target Iran's ballistic missile launch sites inland.

Threats to reduce U.S. troops in Europe and the U.S. The Trump administration on April 29 also threatened to reduce troops stationed in Italy, Spain, and Germany, claiming these NATO allies have not provided enough support for U.S. military actions against Iran.

3. Strait of Hormuz: Traffic volume shows initial signs of recovery, "toll" mechanism pushes for normalization

According to the latest reports from Iranian state TV, Iran has begun officially collecting tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz by conducting transactions with ships in "multiple currencies," establishing a clear "toll" system. Shipping traffic through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz shows mixed signs:

Positive signs: Last Saturday, over 19 ships passed through. Recent data shows that on the last Saturday of April, 19 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz, the first time since the outbreak of hostilities that the number exceeded single digits. Of these, 5 ships entered, 14 ships exited, all following routes announced by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Iranian officials revealed that the parliament has formulated a comprehensive plan for managing the strait, with the core being full Iranian sovereignty, requiring ships to pay fees according to regulations, and prohibiting passage for hostile countries' ships—including Israel, which is permanently banned.

Overall still near stagnation. On Thursday morning, only one fuel oil tanker related to Iran entered the Persian Gulf, with no ships observed leaving throughout the day. On Wednesday, only three bulk carriers exited, and two entered, mostly related to Iran. UN data shows that since February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 95.3%. Even if the blockade is lifted today, normal supply chain recovery will still take months.

Iran’s top leader’s tough stance. On the 30th, coinciding with Iran’s "National Persian Gulf Day," Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei delivered a strong speech, declaring that the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are "opening a new chapter," and Iran will ensure the security of the Persian Gulf. The new management model will bring "peace and progress" to neighboring countries.

Oil prices fluctuate sharply. International benchmark Brent crude once surged to $126 per barrel, though it has slightly retreated, remaining above $113. UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that the strait’s blockade is "strangling the global economy."

4. Lebanon-Israel border continues to worsen: heavy civilian casualties

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon continue to intensify. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health reported on the 30th that since the escalation of conflict on March 2, Israeli military attacks across Lebanon have caused at least 2,586 deaths and 8,020 injuries. Although Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire on the 23rd, Israel continues to launch attacks citing Hezbollah violations.

Hezbollah drones pose new threats. Hezbollah increasingly uses fiber-optic-guided FPV drones capable of evading traditional electronic detection, causing casualties among Israeli forces multiple times. During the attack on the 30th, a Hezbollah drone killed one Israeli soldier, and a total of 15 soldiers were injured in similar attacks that day.

5. Houthi forces threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Houthi officials recently issued warnings on social media: "If Sanaa decides to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, no force can reopen it." Politburo member Buhaiti also stated that if the strait must be closed, only ships involved in attacks on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine will be targeted. Meanwhile, international shipping is increasingly cautious: in mid-April, oil tankers rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope reached 24 million tons, a record high; container throughput at key African ports is 71% higher than pre-conflict levels. A more direct impact is that Hapag-Lloyd announced it will suspend JD2/JD3 Red Sea routes from May 10, with no definite reopening date. Global shipping faces dual pressures: blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the north and high risks in the Bab el-Mandeb in the south.

6. UAE officially withdraws from OPEC+ today

Starting at midnight on May 1, the UAE officially withdraws from OPEC and "OPEC+," no longer participating in production quotas and independently determining its oil capacity. Trump welcomed this move, saying it could help lower global oil and gas prices. Russia stated that "OPEC+ will continue cooperation." The UAE’s withdrawal, against the backdrop of ongoing chaos in the Middle East, will further intensify the profound impact on the global energy landscape—since the Strait of Hormuz already cuts off about one-fifth of global seaborne oil supplies, and OPEC+ members are facing both war-related losses and fractures from withdrawal, the dual reduction in supply will put upward pressure on prices.

Summary: The deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations remains unresolved, the Hormuz Strait blockade persists, conflicts between Lebanon and Israel escalate, Houthi threats target the Red Sea, and the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC+ adds multiple pressures on global supply chains. Ceasefire boundaries are being tested repeatedly, and military escalation alarms ring again. Under multiple pressures, any change in the Gulf situation could trigger larger chain reactions.