I just came across an interesting report from JPMorgan that contains a quite bold gold price forecast for 2028. The analysts expect gold to reach $6,000 per ounce by then—that's a significant increase from current levels.

What fascinates me about the analysis is not just the target figure itself, but the logic behind it. JPMorgan argues that we are currently experiencing a structural shift in asset allocation. At the moment, global private investors hold only about 2.6 percent of their wealth in gold, while nearly 48 percent flows into stocks. The forecast is based on the assumption that this gold share will rise to 4.6 percent—and to achieve that, the gold price would need to climb by approximately 110 percent.

The interesting part is the background: investors are beginning to realize that traditional bonds no longer serve as effective hedges against stock risks as they used to. After the turbulence this year, where both stocks and long-term bonds declined simultaneously, many are looking for alternatives. Gold is increasingly discussed as a structural hedging instrument—this is actually something new compared to the 1970s, when gold was mainly bought due to currency devaluation fears.

JPMorgan’s gold price forecast for 2028 specifically predicts that the price will reach $5,055 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, before continuing upward. The macroeconomic backdrop, with geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, indeed supports rising gold demand.

But honestly: all of this is based on assumptions that depend on whether this structural shift in asset allocation actually occurs. The actual development will be influenced by many factors—Fed policies, dollar movements, global macro data. Despite the recent correction, I still see strong demand for physical gold ETFs, indicating that many investors are committed to this thesis in the long term.

Anyone following this topic should keep an eye on how these drivers develop. It will be interesting to see how quickly the allocations actually shift.