Recently, I reread some classic discussions on investment philosophy, especially the deep insights about the market from the legendary writer George Soros, and I suddenly gained new understanding.

There is a point I strongly agree with: people often make mistakes not because they don't understand, but because they think they understand everything. This is most evident in trading. I have seen too many people make some money during a market rally, then start to believe they have seen through the market. And what happens next? When the next turning point arrives, they are caught off guard.

The market is always a cycle of rises and falls; the key is not to predict how it will move, but to identify when the trend is changing. Finding that turning point means winning half the battle. But this requires you to stay alert and be ready to adjust at any moment.

One logic I particularly appreciate is: economic history is essentially a series of illusions and lies. The real way to make money is to recognize these illusions, participate in them at the right time, and then fully withdraw before the masses discover the truth. This may sound a bit cold, but if you've observed a few cycles, you'll understand that this is how the market operates.

Of course, risk management is the prerequisite. Taking risks is fine, but don’t put your entire wealth on the line. Every failure is a learning opportunity. A true investor isn’t measured by win rate but by whether they can get back up after each fall and become stronger.

Another important detail: market prices are not just reflections of fundamentals; they also shape fundamentals themselves. Once this reflexivity occurs, price movements will deviate from the so-called "equilibrium price." The future is not passively determined by current expectations; quite the opposite, current expectations are actively shaping the future.

So you need to understand a fact: most people cannot keep up with changes. They are always a step behind. If you want to succeed, first, you need enough free time to think and observe; second, you must admit your mistakes and have the courage to acknowledge illusions.

One final piece of advice: investing is not about following the crowd. Those who follow the crowd are doomed to fail. You need independent thinking, even if it means enduring loneliness and pain. If you're not ready to face this pain, you should exit now.