Listen, gold has been doing interesting things in recent years, and I’ve started to seriously reconsider the gold forecasts for 10 years from now. When I look at the data from 2024 onward, I see a pattern that intrigues me quite a bit.

Two years ago, at the beginning of 2024, gold started doing something extraordinary: it set new all-time highs not only in dollars but in virtually every global currency. It was a signal that we were entering a serious bull market. The 50-year charts showed a completion of patterns that hadn’t been seen in decades—a cup and handle formed between 2013 and 2023. When you see such long consolidations, it means what comes next is really strong.

Now, in May 2026, I can tell you that the forecasts for 2025 of around $3,100 were not reached—the price hit about $2,800 as a peak. But I don’t see this as a failure of fundamental analysis. What’s happening is that the gold bull market is slower than some expected. It’s a moderate trend, not a vertical explosion.

The real question I’m asking now concerns the gold forecasts for 10 years from now. Looking at 2030, the initial targets talked about $5,000 as a possible peak. Given where we are now, with gold around $2,500–$2,600, this still means a doubling in the next four years. It’s not impossible, but it requires that the fundamental drivers remain solid.

What are these drivers? Mainly expected inflation and monetary dynamics. M2 and CPI continue to grow steadily—not explosively, but persistently. This supports the weak bullish trend of gold. Inflation expectations still respect that secular upward channel we’ve observed in recent years. Nothing fundamentally has changed on this front.

There’s also the interesting intermarket factor. The euro remains constructive in its long-term charts, Treasury bonds have an upward structure, and this creates a favorable environment for gold. When the euro is strong, gold prices tend to rise. This supports the bullish thesis.

But here’s an element that limits potential: net short positions of commercial traders in the futures market remain very high. It means the market is ‘long’ on the downside, and when you’re in this situation, the upside potential is limited in the short term. It’s not a factor that invalidates the bullish trend, but it suggests we won’t see vertical explosions. It will be gradual.

Regarding the 10-year gold forecast, my baseline scenario remains: $3,900 by 2026 (we’re already here, more or less), then $4,500–$5,000 by 2030. After 2030, frankly, it becomes pure speculation. Macroeconomic conditions change every decade, so trying to predict beyond 2030 is illusory.

The consensus among major institutions in 2024 was centered around $2,700–$2,800 for 2025, and in fact, that’s what we saw. Goldman Sachs, UBS, BofA, JPMorgan—all in that range. I was more bullish with $3,100, but the market decided differently. The lesson is that even when you’re right about the direction, timing and speed can surprise you.

What fascinates me about the 10-year gold forecast is that we’re still at the beginning of this bullish cycle. A cycle that started with a 10-year cup and handle is destined to last years, not months. So even if 2024–2025 has been more moderate than expected, the trend remains intact.

Silver? That will come later. Historically, silver accelerates in the next phase of a gold bull market. The gold/silver ratio charts still suggest a target of $50 for silver, but that will probably happen toward the end of this decade.

The real question for investors is: do you still believe in the 10-year gold forecast toward $5,000? Personally, yes. The fundamentals are still there, the charts are still constructive, and monetary dynamics haven’t changed. It might take longer than initially thought, but the direction remains bullish. The gold bull market is here to stay, it’s just progressing at a more measured pace than some hoped.