Is SSR Mining (TSX:SSRM) Mispriced After Strong Multi Year Share Price Rally

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 12:13 PM GMT+9 6 min read

In this article:

SSRM

+2.62%

SSRGF

0.00%

Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St’s easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.

If you are wondering whether SSR Mining's current share price fairly reflects its potential, this article will walk through what the numbers are really saying about value.

The stock recently closed at C$36.45, with returns of 10.7% over the last 30 days and 23.3% year to date, on top of a 143.6% return over the past year and 100.5% over three years.

These moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing market attention on precious metals producers and how they are positioned in terms of assets, costs, and balance sheet strength. For SSR Mining, investors have been weighing these factors alongside its operational profile and exposure to commodity price moves when reassessing what they are willing to pay for the shares.

According to Simply Wall St's valuation checks, SSR Mining has a value score of 5 out of 6, which suggests several metrics are pointing to potential undervaluation. Next, we will compare the usual valuation approaches before looking at a more complete way to think about what the stock could be worth.

SSR Mining delivered 143.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: SSR Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting the cash it could generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today’s value.

For SSR Mining, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is $231.7 million. Analyst inputs and subsequent extrapolations point to forecast free cash flow of $800.76 million in 2027, with a series of annual projections out to 2035 that are discounted back to today using Simply Wall St’s assumptions.

Adding these discounted cash flows together and accounting for the terminal value gives an estimated intrinsic value of $146.49 per share. Compared to the recent share price of CA$36.45, the DCF implies the stock trades at a 75.1% discount to this estimate. This suggests a wide gap between the market price and the cash flow based valuation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests SSR Mining is undervalued by 75.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 5 more high quality undervalued stocks.

SSRM Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for SSR Mining.

Approach 2: SSR Mining Price vs Earnings (P/E)

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to link what you pay for the stock to the earnings the business is currently generating. It lets you see how many dollars investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of profit.

Story Continues  

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E often depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower multiple.

SSR Mining currently trades on a P/E of 13.65x. That sits below the Metals and Mining industry average of 23.06x and below the broader peer average of 31.41x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for SSR Mining is 24.11x, which is its proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be given factors like earnings growth characteristics, profitability, size and risk profile.

Because the Fair Ratio builds all of those company specific inputs into a single number, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison to industry or peers. With SSR Mining’s actual P/E of 13.65x sitting well under the 24.11x Fair Ratio, this framework points to the shares trading at a discount.

Result: UNDERVALUED

TSX:SSRM P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 3 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your SSR Mining Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an approach on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you write the story you believe about SSR Mining, link that story to your own revenue, earnings and margin forecasts, see the fair value that falls out of those numbers, then compare it with the current price to decide whether the stock looks attractive or expensive. The Narrative keeps updating as fresh news or earnings arrive. This means a more optimistic view that points to a Fair Value of about CA$53.40 and a more cautious view closer to CA$29.77 can sit side by side and show you exactly how different assumptions on growth, profitability and risk lead to very different conclusions.

For SSR Mining however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading SSR Mining Narratives:

🐂 SSR Mining Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: CA$53.40 per share

Implied discount to this fair value vs the latest close of CA$36.45: about 31.8%

Revenue growth assumption in this view: 40.53% per year

Backers of this bullish view focus on higher gold prices, Hod Maden progress, and what they see as underappreciated production capacity across the portfolio, including Cripple Creek & Victor.

They highlight mine life extensions and new drill targets at operations like Puna, Marigold, Seabee, and CC&V as supporting a stronger and more visible long term cash flow profile.

This camp also points to a solid balance sheet, active project pipeline, and capital allocation options as reasons the shares could offer upside if things play out as they expect.

🐻 SSR Mining Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: CA$29.77 per share

Implied premium to this fair value vs the latest close of CA$36.45: about 22.5%

Revenue growth assumption in this view: 24.91% per year

The cautious thesis leans on operational and regulatory uncertainty at assets like Çöpler, along with sizeable remediation and reclamation obligations that could weigh on future margins.

Rising all in sustaining costs at key mines and concerns about long term precious metals demand, including weaker demand from China, are seen as headwinds for earnings quality.

Even though this camp recognises SSR Mining's project pipeline and balance sheet, they question whether the current price already bakes in more optimism than their assumptions support.

If you want to go beyond the preview and see how other investors are framing the story, it is worth reading the full bull and bear Narratives for SSR Mining and comparing them with your own expectations for the business.

Do you think there’s more to the story for SSR Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

TSX:SSRM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include SSRM.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

Terms and Privacy Policy

Privacy Dashboard

More Info