I have been paying close attention to the Middle East situation recently, and I’ve found that the logic behind the US-Iran conflict is far more complex than it seems on the surface.

At first glance, it looks like a nuclear weapons issue, but the real reasons for the US-Iran war must be dug into more deeply. The 2015 JCPOA agreement originally froze Iran’s nuclear program; however, in 2018, Trump directly withdrew from it, and the entire uranium enrichment race was restarted. Now Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile has already surpassed 400 kilograms, with a concentration of 60%, which is very close to weapons-grade.

But this didn’t happen out of nowhere. To understand the causes of the US-Iran war, you have to go back to 1953—when the CIA planned a coup to overthrow Prime Minister Mosaddegh, and the purpose was very straightforward: to control oil resources. Later, in 1979, the Islamic Revolution overthrew the pro-American Shah, and Iran overnight went from being an ally of the United States to becoming its mortal enemy. After that, for decades there have been “shadow wars,” using proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria to expand influence in the region.

The real core, in fact, is energy. Iran has 20.8 billion barrels of oil and 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and it controls the Strait of Hormuz. This strait carries 20% of the world’s oil flow—2000万 barrels per day. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would greatly strengthen its ability to control the flow of energy, which would push up global inflation and transportation costs, making market fluctuations extremely intense.

Recently, after the escalation of the Gaza conflict, indirect confrontation has turned into direct confrontation. In response, Iran attacked U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries began to take sides, saying they would “spare no effort” to defend sovereignty. This could drag the entire Arab world into a regional war and completely rewrite the alliance landscape in the Gulf.

Put simply, the underlying reason for the US-Iran war ultimately isn’t just nuclear weapons—it’s a crisis in the global energy supply chain. Once the situation spirals out of control, what will happen to oil markets’ fluctuations, and how high will energy prices soar? The impact on the global economy would be substantial.