I’ve been paying close attention to the underlying reasons for the U.S.-Iran war, and what’s happening behind it is far more complex than the apparent surface-level military conflict.

On the surface, it seems to be a nuclear weapons issue, but the real contest is actually about energy control. Iran holds more than 200 billion barrels of oil and substantial natural gas reserves; more importantly, it controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil pass every day globally. If Iran truly possesses nuclear weapons, the impact on the global energy market would be catastrophic.

The historical clues are also clear. In 1953, the U.S. CIA planned a coup to overthrow Mosaddegh; in 1979, the Islamic Revolution flipped the situation, and ever since, the U.S. and Iran have become sworn enemies. The 2015 nuclear deal temporarily froze Iran’s nuclear program, but in 2018 Trump tore up the agreement directly—this move changed the situation completely. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is now approaching weapons-grade levels, which has made the U.S. feel a real threat.

I’ve noticed that the real logic behind the U.S.-Iran war is this: once Iran has nuclear weapons, its ability to control the flow of energy in the Gulf region will rise exponentially. This would not only push up global oil prices, but also reshape the entire power structure in the Middle East. Traditional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be forced to pick a side, and the risk of regional war would increase significantly.

From a market perspective, this conflict will trigger a chain reaction in energy prices, inflation expectations, and transportation costs. Energy crises often lead to the reallocation of global assets, and the crypto market is no exception. That’s also why, recently, I’ve been seeing many people focusing on the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on the market.

In plain terms, the core of the U.S.-Iran war is still the struggle over energy and strategic control, and nuclear weapons are merely the leverage in this contest.