The expectation of rate cuts continues to cool down, and the liquidity turning point has not yet arrived.


Latest data shows that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) interest rate outlook tool provides the latest pricing:
June policy meeting window:

Probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged: 95%

Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut: 5%

July policy meeting window:

Probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged: 87.9%

Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut: 11.7%

Probability of a 50 basis point rate cut: 0.4%

The core meaning of this data set is only one thing:
The market is re-pricing the start time of the "easing cycle."
In other words—
Liquidity will not return so quickly.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

Short-term: Lack of new liquidity-driven momentum, market more inclined to oscillate and trade sideways

Medium-term: Genuine trend movement still requires waiting for policy turning points to be confirmed

Structural: Funds are more inclined toward high-certainty assets rather than high-risk expansion

The biggest illusion in the market is trading in "interest rate cuts that haven't happened yet."
And the real opportunity often appears after expectations have completely shifted.
Before liquidity is released, controlling the pace is more important than betting on the direction.
Follow me for continuous analysis of the macro liquidity and crypto market linkage logic.
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