Recently, I’ve been pondering an interesting historical question—if Qian Hongchu had not surrendered to the Song Dynasty, how much longer could Wu Yue have lasted?

First, let’s state the conclusion: he simply couldn’t have held on. This isn’t because Qian Hongchu was incompetent, but because he had no real choice from the very beginning.

The territory of Wu Yue, to put it plainly, was just the area of Zhejiang, plus Suzhou and Fuzhou regions. This location had a fatal flaw—surrounded on all sides by other powers’ territories. To the north and west was Southern Tang, and beyond that was the Central Plains dynasties. Living in such a squeeze, how did Wu Yue survive for over seventy years? By relying on Southern Tang as a shield.

From Yang Wu to Southern Tang, the Jianghuai region acted like a natural barrier. The Central Plains dynasties wanting to invade southward had to first get past Southern Tang. They fought Southern Tang’s armies, burned Southern Tang’s houses. Meanwhile, Wu Yue behind them was peacefully repairing dikes and engaging in maritime trade. How prosperous was the port of Hangzhou? Su Shi later described it as a land of wealth, like ivory and pearls, the richest in the world—referring to that period.

This logic was established by Qian Liu, passed down from his grandfather to his father, then to him. Three generations, five kings, over seventy years without major mishap. But this logic had a fatal premise—Southern Tang had to be alive.

In 974, Zhao Kuangyin ordered the conquest of Southern Tang. Qian Hongchu received not an invitation, but an order. Wu Yue sent 50,000 troops to attack Jinling from the east. Li Yu wrote him a letter, with a core message: “Without me today, how can there be a ruler tomorrow?” The meaning was straightforward—Southern Tang was doomed, and it would be Wu Yue’s turn next.

Qian Hongchu read the letter and did not reply. Instead, he forwarded it intact to Zhao Kuangyin. Many say this was a show of loyalty; I see it as sealing his last escape route. From that moment on, all tacit understanding and potential cooperation between Wu Yue and Southern Tang were completely nullified.

In 975, Jinling fell, and Li Yu surrendered. Song armies encircled Wu Yue from three sides, leaving only the eastern sea open. In March 978, Qian Hongchu was summoned to Kaifeng to meet Zhao Guangyi. Historical records say he wept aloud and fainted when visiting his grandfather Qian Liu’s tomb—unable to stand steadily. What was he crying for? For his ancestral legacy, for the retreat he had personally destroyed.

In Kaifeng, Zhao Guangyi showed him great respect. He was received with sword and robe, and the edict was unmarked—treatment even Cao Cao never received. The more courteous, the more dangerous. Just as Qian Hongchu hesitated, Chen Hongjin, who controlled Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, was the first to present the surrender document. This move was like telling him: if you don’t surrender, others will.

In May, Qian Hongchu submitted a report surrendering all 13 provinces and 86 counties of Wu Yue. The Wu Yue kingdom, which had lasted for 72 years, thus ended peacefully.

Someone asked: could Qian Hongchu have preserved Wu Yue? Theoretically, Li Yu’s letter made it clear—Wu Yue and Southern Tang would have joined forces to attack the Song from both sides. At that time, the Song front was extremely long, with supply lines crossing half the Yangtze River. If Wu Yue had attacked the Song’s flank from the east, Zhao Kuangyin might not have been able to conquer Southern Tang outright. The Song army besieged Jinling for a whole year, and Zhao even considered withdrawing. If chaos erupted on the eastern front, the outcome was unpredictable.

But in reality? Qian Hongchu couldn’t do it. Wu Yue’s military independence had already begun to erode during the Later Zhou era. In 955, when Zhou Shizong attacked Southern Tang, Wu Yue’s army was incorporated into Zhou’s forces, under Zhou generals’ command. This relationship was fully inherited by the Song Dynasty. Qian Hongchu wanted to act alone, but the command chain was not in his control.

Financially, Wu Yue had been drained by tributary payments. Porcelain from Yue kiln, silk, gold and silver, tea—every year shipped to Kaifeng. It wasn’t that they didn’t want to be tough; they simply lacked the money to do so.

More fundamentally—Qian’s family’s three generations of “respect for the Central Plains” had become the political foundation of Wu Yue. Qian Liu’s last instructions clearly stated: “All Chinese rulers, even if they change surnames, should treat others well.” Suddenly turning around to ally with Southern Tang against the Song not only wouldn’t be accepted by Zhao Kuangyin, but probably no one inside Wu Yue would support it either.

Qian Hongchu wasn’t blind to that path. But he couldn’t walk it. Ironically, Li Yu, the “incompetent ruler,” made the right judgment at the end. He still considered Qian Hongchu a friend and even wrote to seek alliance.

On August 24, 988, Qian Hongchu’s 60th birthday. Zhao Guangyi sent gifts and fine wine. After the banquet that night, a shooting star fell in front of his chamber. The next morning, he died.

The fate of Wu Yue was sealed the moment that letter was handed over.