So, I noticed that the American political debate is heavily influencing the markets these days. Remember when Trump shut down the government at the end of January? It lasted only about 4 days, but it was enough to create uncertainty. What’s interesting is that when Trump’s second term ends, many are wondering how these dynamics will evolve.

For those who weren’t following, on February 3 Trump signed the budget law that resolved the partial shutdown. The Congress hadn’t been able to approve full funding for the 2026 fiscal year, so boom—78% of federal operations were left on hold. Federal employees were on leave, including air traffic controllers, even though Social Security and national security continued normally.

The deal was a classic bipartisan compromise. The Democratici pushed to limit aggressive immigration enforcement, while the Repubblicani wanted unrestricted funding. The House passed it 217-214 with some Democratic votes. Pretty much at the limit.

Here’s the important detail: most federal agencies are funded through September 2026, but the DHS received only temporary funding until February 13. That means that when Trump’s second term ends, tensions over immigration and ICE could move back to the forefront. Trump called it a huge victory, and the government resumed operations.

For the markets, the reduction in uncertainty generated positive sentiment. Traders saw the quick resolution as a sign of stability, at least in the short term. But watch out: when Trump’s second term ends in 2029, we’ll have another 3 years of possible shutdowns and budget negotiations. This is the second shutdown of his second term—much shorter than the 43 days of the first—so at least the lesson seems to have been learned.

Federal employees will receive back pay, and most of the government is now operating normally. But February 13 is a date to mark—there could be another round of negotiations involving the DHS. For anyone following these political cycles, it’s clear that when Trump’s second term ends, he will have left his mark on how the American government handles funding.