Analysis: Quantum Risks Could Impact $145 Billion BTC, Significant Sell Pressure but Market Can Withstand It

On April 23, CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that recent advancements in quantum computing have reignited concerns about Bitcoin. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures, exposing public keys and potentially visible Bitcoins, especially those in wallets from the early Satoshi era. However, market data indicates that even in the worst-case scenario, the sell-off would be large but manageable, rather than catastrophic. It is estimated that approximately 1.7 million BTC are located in addresses from the Satoshi era that may be vulnerable to such attacks, representing a potential sell pressure of about $145 billion at current prices. Yet, data shows that during bull markets, long-term holders (investors holding for at least 155 days) typically distribute between 10,000 to 30,000 BTC daily. At this rate, the entire supply from the Satoshi era would equate to about two to three months of regular profit-taking. In the recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, exceeding the ‘target’ amount related to quantum computing, yet the market did not experience a systemic collapse. Monthly inflows to trading platforms approached 850,000 BTC. The derivatives market processes nominal trading volumes equivalent to the entire Satoshi reserve every few days. Check stated that a sudden, concentrated release would still trigger volatility and could lead to long-term declines, but this scenario assumes economically irrational behavior—any entity able to access such assets would have the incentive to gradually distribute them, potentially hedging through derivatives to reduce slippage and maximize returns. He believes the real issue is not mechanical sell pressure, but governance—the larger question is whether to freeze Satoshi’s coins through BIP-361 and allow the situation to evolve naturally.