Just caught up on something pretty interesting about the global nickel landscape that's worth paying attention to if you're tracking commodity markets or EV supply chains. Indonesia's basically taken over the world's largest producer of nickel spot, and it's reshaping everything about how this metal flows through the market.

The numbers are pretty wild. Indonesia cranked out 2.2 million metric tons last year, which is more than half of global production. That's a massive jump from where they were just a few years back—2017 they were doing like 345K MT. The country's positioning itself as the world's largest producer of nickel specifically for battery applications, which is smart given the EV boom. They've got 55 million metric tons of reserves sitting there too, so they're not slowing down anytime soon.

What's interesting is how fast this shift happened. Philippines used to be in the top spot and they're now second with 330K MT. Russia's at 210K, Canada 190K, China 120K. New Caledonia and Australia both sitting at 110K but dealing with different pressures. Brazil doing 77K, and the US basically negligible at 8K MT.

But here's the thing—Indonesia's dominance is actually creating some market friction. Their massive output combined with weak demand has prices trending downward since they broke above $20K per ton back in mid-2024. Nickel miners in the Philippines and other countries have been forced to cut or halt operations because of oversupply. Australia's nickel production dropped over 26 percent, and New Caledonia fell more than 52 percent year-over-year.

The EV angle is where this gets really relevant though. Stainless steel still drives most nickel demand, but battery applications are becoming increasingly important. Indonesia's already building out its EV battery processing infrastructure and they're close to China, which dominates EV manufacturing globally. Ford even took a stake in Indonesia's Pomalaa battery nickel project, and there's billions in deals flowing into the country for battery materials and production.

Canada's interesting too—they're ramping up with 190K MT production, up from 159K the year before. They're planning North America's largest nickel processing plant in Ontario. But there's uncertainty hanging over Canadian nickel because of US tariff policies affecting steel and aluminum. Canada's currently the world's largest producer of nickel to the US market at 46 percent of imports, so any trade shifts could ripple through.

The supply dynamics are basically this: Indonesia's flooding the market with high volumes, prices are under pressure, smaller producers are struggling, but long-term demand from the EV transition should keep nickel relevant. If you're watching commodity plays or thinking about energy transition exposure, the nickel story is worth monitoring closely because the world's largest producer of nickel is basically rewriting the rules of this market.