Recently, CryptoKid has been working on crude oil, analyzing the international situation ➕ the price fluctuations of crude oil ~ (mainly shorting 📉)

First, yesterday the Trump administration called on allied countries to establish a new international coalition to coordinate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. (to suppress oil prices)
Currently, the core demands of the US and Iran are not being resolved, but if crude oil prices stay high, it is actually an "invisible tax" on the global economy. The longer it lasts, the more damage it causes.
If crude oil prices remain high for a long time, a series of butterfly effects will occur ⬇️
1️⃣ Inflation gets locked in 🔒
Transportation, manufacturing, and energy costs all rise
Companies can only:
👉 Raise prices or profit margins shrink
👉 The result:
The world enters a "high inflation environment"
2️⃣ Consumption is suppressed
High oil prices → higher fuel, electricity, and food costs
Residents' real income declines
👉 The result:
Consumption downgrade / weaker demand
3️⃣ Central banks are "kidnapped"
High inflation → fear of cutting interest rates
May even continue tightening
👉 The result:
Liquidity tightens + asset prices come under pressure
4️⃣ Final result: economic slowdown or recession
👉 Classic path:
High oil prices → high inflation → high interest rates → low growth
And oil prices are one of the core variables of CPI
👉 The result:
The Fed becomes more hawkish
Delay in rate cuts
So I personally believe that regardless of how big this conflict is, or whether the demands of both sides are ultimately resolved, the international situation and economic environment do not allow crude oil prices to stay high, unless there is a direct open confrontation.