Indonesia basically rewrote the nickel production by country rankings over the last few years and it's wild how fast this happened. They went from producing 345k metric tons back in 2017 to over 2.2 million metric tons in 2024 - that's more than half of global output now. The Philippines and New Caledonia used to dominate this space but got completely overshadowed.

What's driving this? Indonesia saw the EV battery boom coming and went all in. They're sitting right next to China, which is the manufacturing hub for everything EV-related. That proximity is huge for logistics. The country commissioned its first nickel battery processing plant in May 2021 and by early 2023, they'd signed over a dozen deals worth $15 billion with global manufacturers. Ford even took a direct stake in the Pomalaa battery nickel plant project, which is supposed to produce 120k metric tons annually.

But here's the thing - all that production flooded the market. Nickel prices have been trending downward since May 2024 when they broke $20k per metric ton. Weak demand plus Indonesia's massive output created serious oversupply. The Philippines dropped from 413k metric tons in 2023 down to 330k in 2024. Producers there got squeezed hard and had to cut back.

Russia sits third with 210k metric tons in 2024, but that's down from earlier in the decade. Their Norilsk Nickel operation is still one of the world's largest for high-grade nickel, though the US and UK slapped import bans on Russian nickel in mid-2024. Canada's actually been doing better - they hit 190k metric tons in 2024, up from 159k the year before. Vale's Sudbury operation and Glencore's mines there are key players.

China produced 120k metric tons while also being the world's largest producer of nickel pig iron. That dual role makes them influential in price dynamics. New Caledonia got hit hard though, dropping over 52 percent from 2023 to 110k metric tons. Glencore shut down their Koniambo mine citing high costs and weak market conditions. The French government offered a 200 million euro bailout package but it's been messy.

Australia also saw production drop 26 percent to 110k metric tons. Low prices forced operators to reduce or suspend operations at six different facilities. Brazil came in at 77k metric tons, down 7 percent, while the US barely registers at 8k metric tons from the Eagle mine in Michigan.

The real story here is that nickel production by country has fundamentally shifted toward Southeast Asia. Indonesia's dominance in nickel production by country rankings is reshaping the entire supply chain. Long-term demand looks solid with EV batteries becoming a bigger application alongside traditional stainless steel uses, but the short-term picture is oversupply and price pressure. Anyone watching this space needs to understand these regional dynamics are going to keep affecting prices and investment decisions.