Recently, I’ve been checking the pools for blockchain games on a few L2s, and it really comes down to one word: dragging. People think, “High output means get in early and make money early,” but what’s actually happening is that inflation is being cranked up way too aggressively. Token issuance is basically happening as if it’s free. The small amount of real buy pressure in the pool can’t possibly absorb it, and in the end it turns into everyone racing to sprint off at the start. Put simply, output isn’t the problem. The problem is that the source of the output relies entirely on printing, and the consumption side is too weak. The money from fees and from reclaiming/returning items isn’t even enough to fill the gap—let alone “to cover it.”

Right now, when I look at blockchain game pools, I focus on two things: whether the new output curve keeps opening the gates and increasing release the whole way, and where the sell pressure is mainly concentrated on which chain (cross-chain transfers happen fast, so dumping is fast too...). Recently, people have also been discussing expectations for rate cuts, the US Dollar Index, and risk assets moving up and down together. My gut feeling is: once sentiment warms up, these high-inflation pools actually die even faster—everyone becomes more willing to charge in, and just as willing to run. Anyway, I’d rather earn a little less than be the last one holding the stick in that “seems lively” TVL.