BTC Today Trading Recommendations:

Plan A: Light Position Short-term Long (Aggressive)
Entry: $75,600–$75,900 (after stabilization at the first support zone)
Stop Loss: Below $74,200 (exit if the second support breaks)
Target 1: $76,650 (First resistance)
Target 2: $77,000 (Second resistance)
Position: Total position ≤15%, strictly light position
Plan B: Wait for Breakout Confirmation (Conservative)
Long condition: 4-hour close above $77,000 with MACD histogram turning positive
Entry: $77,000–$77,200 after confirmation, chase long
Stop Loss: Below $76,200
Target: $77,800 → $80,000
Plan C: Breakout Short-term Short (Defensive)
Entry: Short after $74,200 breaks
Stop Loss: Above $74,800
Target 1: $71,000
Target 2: $68,000 (Extreme case)
Key Risks:
1. Daily MACD divergence is the current biggest technical risk. If a quick volume breakout above $77,000 does not digest the divergence, the probability of a pullback increases.
2. Uncertainty from Federal Reserve split votes + Warsh’s appointment, macro short-term bias is hawkish, rate cut expectations are delayed.
3. $74,200 is the "life and death line" for bulls; if broken, support below is sparse, and rapid decline to $71,000 is possible.
4. The fear index at 26 suggests a bottom area, but confirmation requires volume recovery above $77,000; heavy bottom fishing is not advisable now.
5. Short-term ETF outflows + leverage liquidation indicate weak liquidity in the short term, increasing slippage risk during large volatility.