$BTC The Fed holds interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% and Powell remains until 2028, reinforcing expectations of stable monetary policy. This news highlights BTC as a macro risk asset: gold and silver decline, and EVIX falls 2.99% — crypto liquidity and volatility temporarily cool.

Market sentiment: spot BTC trading volume drops to the lowest level since 10/2023, and many funds (e.g., QCP) turn cautious. Options open interest remains large, while the fear–greed index and social activity are in a wait-and-see state. On-chain data records net inflows, but both spot buying and short positions increase — showing a bulls vs. bears standoff, raising the risk of volatility if liquidity is disrupted. Liquidity/rebuy capacity on exchanges is estimated at around $30–40 billion, limiting room for a strong rebound.

Trading perspective (bullish bias but needs confirmation): holding the support above $74k is ideal for the bulls; breaking down below $74k will hand control to the bears.
- Cautious strategy (swing): only enter if BTC holds above $74k after a breakout + retest; buy partial positions upon confirmation. Short-term targets are 80–82k (take partial profits), extending to 88–95k if liquidity and open interest rise. Initial SL is below 71–72k (or <70k depending on risk appetite).
- Dip-buying strategy: look to add at 72–74k with a small size, with a tight SL below ~70–71k.
- If there is a clear break below $74k along with high volume: shift bias to Short; enter on a failed retest of $74k, target 68–70k, with a short stop-loss just above 76–78k.

Risk management: prioritize small sizing, scale-in/scale-out; monitor the funding rate, open interest, EVIX, spot volume, exchange inflows/outflows, and the frequency of “panic selling.” Note that exchange buy limits are around $30–40B — if selling pressure is not alleviated