#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC Deep Deconstruction Analysis

Price Action Review: After the FOMC statement was released on April 29, BTC quickly dropped from a high of around $77,000 to $74,914, completing the selloff within just a few hours. Currently, Kalshi’s prediction market shows that the probability of BTC staying above $76,000 before the close on May 1 is about 64%, while the probability of breaking through $77,000 is only 37%—the market is generally pessimistic about short-term upside, with no clear direction, but there is no panic liquidation either.
Technical Analysis: BTC is currently consolidating sideways within the $74,900-$77,000 range. $75,000 is a key support level; if it breaks down, it will quickly expose two important support zones at $72,000 and $68,800. The resistance-heavy zone overhead is $78,200-$78,700; if price breaks out on increased volume, $80,000 will come back into focus.
Daily and 4-hour perspective: The daily and 4-hour charts are basically aligned, showing a state of rebuilding strength after a short-term pullback. The current candlestick structure is relatively neutral: there is no clear bullish morning star/hammer pattern, and no bearish formations such as a head and shoulders top have formed. RSI is in the neutral zone. MACD recently flashed a small death-cross signal, but the momentum remains limited.

On-chain core indicators: Exchange net flow: Recently, the ETF side has seen continuous net outflows (see Section 6 for details). Combined with the exchange BTC net inflow trend, short-term selling pressure is still present, but its magnitude is controllable.
Halving cycle positioning: The last BTC halving occurred in April 2024, about 2 years ago. The historical pattern from the three previous halvings shows that roughly 18-24 months after the halving, cycle peaks typically appear. Taking into account that the current ATH was reached at $126,000 in October 2025, the current timing has already passed the cycle peak, and we are in a deep pullback phase that absorbs the move. This is not the bottom of a traditional bear market, but a “bull-to-bear transition zone” following consolidation at high levels.