#Gate广场五月交易分享 The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the April 29 meeting, marking the fourth consecutive pause. The biggest highlight of the meeting was the internal dissent of four votes against— the largest divergence since 1992, revealing that cracks are deepening within the FOMC between "maintaining a hawkish stance" and "avoiding choking the economy."

Powell confirmed at this meeting that this will be his last press conference as Fed Chair, with his term officially ending on May 15, 2026.
His successor, Kevin Warsh, publicly criticized the current pace of rate cuts as too slow, clearly leaning dovishly. This means the market has reason to expect a policy shift signal at the next FOMC meeting on June 18, but the risk of "disappointment" should not be overlooked— the new official's first move is likely to be closely watched by the market, potentially leading to irrational behavior.
Currently, in the Kalshi prediction market, the probability of zero rate cuts throughout 2026 has risen to about 40%, which is suppressing the overall risk appetite in the market. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East continue, international oil prices remain high around $100 per barrel, exerting structural upward pressure on inflation and further constraining the Fed's policy space.