Bitcoin's price has risen by about 30% since its lowest point in February, and optimism has prevailed among bullish investors for weeks. But the problem, according to one analyst who has stuck to the same macroeconomic analysis for months, is that this is exactly how things looked before the last two major downturns.

The overall picture has not changed. Bitcoin's current price is in a broader corrective phase, and the recent rise is merely a rebound within this correction, not the start of a new bullish trend. Analysts have observed this pattern repeatedly.

Upward movements in corrective phases tend to take a long time, making optimistic investors feel satisfied for extended periods.
Trading volume during this rise has fallen to levels not seen since 2023, indicating that the market is approaching a turning point rather than building real momentum.
When the final decline occurs, it is usually sharp and swift, catching most participants off guard.