Lately, when I look at options, I only have one feeling: this thing called time value, it stays silent most of the time, but when you actually open a position, it’s like “deducting your lunch money” every day in your account. The buyer is exchanging time for possibility; if they guess right, it’s great, if not, it’s slowly eaten away. The seller is collecting rent; it’s comfortable, but once a black swan appears, the premium collected before isn’t enough to cover the losses, especially with protocols that don’t lock permissions and can upgrade their logic. I totally don’t dare to sell naked in those cases.

These days, a bunch of people are watching large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallets on exchanges, and as soon as there’s a move, they say “smart money is coming/going,” but honestly, many of these are just moving, market making, or internal reorganization—don’t jump to conclusions just because you see a transaction.

I personally keep it simple to avoid impulsive trades: first, I close the contract/option interface, then I look at the details (exercise method, source of settlement price, any traps for early exercise), wait ten minutes, and if I still want to try, I use a small position; if not, I just give up. Anyway, I’d rather miss out than have my mindset blown up by time value slowly eroding my patience.