Crypto Daily (05.01): Bitcoin Continues to Face Pressure Below $80k, Institutional Allocation Diverges and Regulatory Progress Advances

I. Bitcoin Price Trends and Market Analysis
1 Currently, Bitcoin maintains a range-bound fluctuation pattern, with prices oscillating between $75k and $79k for a long period, multiple attempts to break through the $80k mark have failed, spot trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since October 2023, implied volatility has compressed to a three-month low, market liquidity is thin, and upward momentum is suppressed by macro uncertainties.
2 On-chain and derivatives data show that the current Bitcoin futures market is experiencing a short squeeze, but without new leverage accumulation. ETF funds have been net outflows for several consecutive weeks, and institutions remain cautious overall. The $65k-$70k range is widely recognized as a key support level.
3 Market opinions on bullish and bearish sides are sharply divided: bulls believe that seasonal trends in May and historical cycle patterns indicate Bitcoin could rise over 180% in the next 12 months, potentially reaching $167k by 2027; bears argue that due to Federal Reserve policy transition uncertainties, high oil prices, and other factors, short-term downside risks are greater, and prices may fall below $70k.
4 Multiple macro analyses show that Bitcoin’s price movement has decoupled from the global M2 money supply growth rate. Current price drivers rely more on ETF capital flows, corporate allocation needs, and other factors. Macro factors remain the core variables influencing future directions.
II. Institutional and Market Participant Bitcoin Allocation and Collaboration Dynamics
1 Corporate sector continues the trend of Bitcoin treasury holdings, with Strategy buying Bitcoin at twice the rate of miners’ daily output, reaching a total holding of 818k BTC, making it the world’s largest Bitcoin institutional holder. Its debt-driven buying mode is seen as a core driver of this round of Bitcoin rebound but also sparks market controversy over a “death spiral.”
2 Bullish initiatives include multiple institutional business deployments: investing 250 BTC (about $19 million) into Bitcoin DeFi protocol Mezo’s yield product Mezo Prime; and deepening cooperation with Ripple Prime to open regulated Bitcoin options trading channels for Ripple’s institutional clients, supporting cross-platform margining to improve capital efficiency.
3 Allocation behaviors among different market entities are diverging: the Czech central bank piloted including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves, believing that a 1% allocation can optimize portfolio risk-return, representing a typical case of central banks exploring Bitcoin reserve allocations; Bhutan continues to sell Bitcoin, having sold over $200 million worth since the beginning of the year, stopped mining operations, and is close to exhausting remaining holdings.
4 Multiple institutions and enterprises are following suit in Bitcoin allocation: BlackRock deposited 1,473 BTC into Coinb; Strive’s SATA completed fundraising to purchase 184 BTC; Canadian asset manager AIMCo invested in Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings for the first time; Abits Group increased its Bitcoin treasury to 15.99 BTC.
III. Cryptocurrency Regulation and Industry Compliance Updates
1 The U.S. “Bitcoin and Crypto Transparency Act” has completed preliminary steps and is entering the markup voting phase. All Republican senators have expressed clear support, and President Trump is expected to sign the bill this summer.
2 U.S. crypto exchange Gemini received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from CFTC, becoming one of the few exchanges holding both DCM and DCO qualifications, marking a key step in completing regulated derivatives operations. Next, they will pursue a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) license to enhance full-stack trading capabilities.
IV. Bitcoin Industry Developments and Technical Events
Bitcoin will undergo an eCash hard fork in August 2026.