So zinc ended 2025 pretty much where it started, which honestly tells you something about how messy the market's been this year. Started January at around $2,927 per metric ton, took a brutal hit in April down to $2,562, then climbed back to close the year near $3,088. That's a wild ride for something that's supposed to be boring commodity stuff.

The price of zinc got hammered in April when Trump dropped the tariff announcements. Everyone thought it would trigger a recession, which would've crushed demand from housing and manufacturing - the two sectors that basically drive zinc consumption through galvanized steel production. The tariff threat eventually got dialed back, but the damage to market sentiment was already done.

Here's what's actually been weighing on the price of zinc: the US housing market is stuck. Affordability is terrible, new construction isn't happening, and there's a glut of unsold homes sitting around. Meanwhile, China's real estate market is still a complete mess. Evergrande and Country Garden blew up back in 2020, and despite the government throwing stimulus at the problem for years, nothing's really improved. By November 2025, China's top 100 developers saw sales down 36 percent year-over-year.

Despite all that weakness, here's the weird part - LME zinc stockpiles actually collapsed from 230,000 MT in January down to just 33,000 MT by November. Production was up across the board (mine production hit 10.51 million MT, refined production at 11.52 million MT), but demand barely budged at 11.44 million MT. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicted an 85,000 MT surplus for 2025, yet inventory levels dropped anyway.

Looking at 2026, the supply situation is only getting worse. ILZSG is forecasting global refined zinc demand will grow just 1 percent to 13.86 million MT. China's expected to stay flat as the real estate crisis drags on into 2027. The US housing market might get some help from the new policy proposals, but it's still fighting high mortgage rates and expensive homes. Europe's the only region looking like it'll post decent growth.

But here's the kicker - supply is ramping up significantly. Mine production is expected to jump 2.4 percent to 12.8 million MT in 2026. You've got new capacity coming online from Portugal's Almina-Minas Aljustrel mine, Bunker Hill's Idaho operation, and China's Xinjiang Huoshaoyun mine which will be the sixth largest lead-zinc operation globally. Refined production is also climbing 2.4 percent to 14.13 million MT. ILZSG is now predicting a 271,000 MT global surplus for 2026 - way bigger than this year.

As for the price of zinc in 2026, Fastmarkets thinks upward momentum from the 2025 average of $3,218 could continue through the first half of the year, mainly because of regional imbalances with Chinese production running hot while the rest of the world's tighter. But they expect the market to rebalance in H2 2026, which would push prices down as global surpluses kick in. Morgan Stanley's more bearish, calling for a $2,900 yearly average. Meanwhile, low LME inventory levels have been driving prices up in the short term, creating some near-term uncertainty.

One thing that could change the narrative: zinc's now classified as a critical mineral in the US for defense and infrastructure projects. South32's Hermosa project got FAST-41 approval for streamlined permitting. If trade tensions with China keep escalating, US and western zinc producers could see a real boost. But realistically, with refined zinc staying in surplus and demand growth staying weak, we're probably looking at more downside pressure on the price of zinc as we move through 2026. Could be an interesting entry point for patient investors though.