Global Top Institutions 2026 Bitcoin Second Half Forecast (Summary of Actual Research Reports)

(Data as of April 30, 2026, Source: Investment Banks/Asset Management Official Reports, CoinDesk, Phemex, etc.)
$BTC ‌
1. Wall Street Investment Banks 2026 Year-End Target Prices (Core Bullish View for Second Half)

- JPMorgan Chase: $170,000 (Fair Value); Logic for second half: continuous inflow of institutional funds, production costs provide strong support, 85% probability of a slow bull run.
- Citi: $143,000 (Benchmark) / $189,000 (Optimistic); Second half: ETF capital + regulatory clarity (e.g., CLARITY Act) driving a breakthrough in Q4.
- Standard Chartered: $100,000–$150,000; Rhythm: bottoming out in Q3 to build strength, ETF volume increase in Q4 to push prices higher.
- Bernstein: $150,000; Judgment: this correction is the "weakest bear market," with no systemic risk, institutional capital extending the bull cycle.
- Goldman Sachs: Cautious, characterized as "high-risk tech beta assets"; but acknowledges decreasing correlation with US stocks and increased institutional allocation, with a high probability of oscillating upward in the second half.

2. Top Asset Management/Research Institutions' Views

- BlackRock: Long-term bullish, shifting from solely betting on BTC to full sector allocation; Ethereum may outperform BTC in the second half, but BTC remains the core holding.
- Galaxy Research: High volatility in 2026, high probability of reaching new all-time highs; target $250,000 in 2027; second half: increased institutional holdings, volatility convergence, more stable trend.
- VanEck: $250,000 (by end of 2026); Core factors: global central bank easing + continuous net inflows into ETFs.

3. Key Timeline and Catalysts for the Second Half (Institutional Consensus)

1. Q3 (July–September): Volatility bottoming out, institutional accumulation period; core support at $75,000–$80,000 (production costs + ETF holdings).
2. Q4 (October–December): Main rally window; Drivers:
- Post-U.S. election regulatory expectations clarified;
- Peak inflows into spot ETFs (monthly billions);
- Institutional rebalancing + US stock market fund diversion.

4. Core Risks (Institutional Consensus)

- Global inflation rebound → delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts;
- Tightening of U.S. crypto regulations (e.g., tax hikes, ETF restrictions);
- Macro black swan events (geopolitical conflicts, financial crises).

5. Institutional Consensus Conclusion

Bitcoin in the second half of 2026: building strength in Q3, surging in Q4, with a high probability of ending the year in the $100,000–$150,000 range, driven by institutional funds, decreasing volatility, and clear signs of a slow bull market.