#加密市场观察 📌 Does the May Day holiday affect the crypto market? My view: Yes, but not in determining the direction, rather in changing the rhythm.

Market movements during holidays are most feared not for inactivity, but for an increase in false moves.
In recent trading days, the focus is not on guessing up or down, but on preventing stop-loss hits.

Today is International Labor Day, marking the start of China's public holiday for Labor Day. Asian market participation will decline, especially during daytime trading, with less active trading volume.
For BTC / ETH, this means order book depth becomes thinner, and prices are more easily moved by small amounts of capital.
So you'll see a phenomenon: seemingly sudden breakouts without continuation; seemingly breaking support but quickly bouncing back.
This kind of market is not fundamentally trending but is driven by liquidity shortages and order sweeping.

During the May Day holiday, the crypto market is more likely to experience three situations:
First, longer consolidation periods with less clear direction;
Second, more false breakouts and fakeouts;
Third, the impact of the US market will be amplified because, after Asian market support weakens, larger movements are more likely to concentrate during European and American trading hours.
In other words, daytime is more frustrating, and clearer trends are more likely to emerge at night.

In this environment, it’s not advisable to hold large positions betting on a one-sided move, nor is it suitable to chase breakouts.
A better approach is to wait until the price hits a key zone, see if it quickly recovers, and then decide whether to participate.
Especially now, with BTC still in a range-bound consolidation, holiday movements tend to sweep both directions, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable.

Trading strategies should be more conservative: reduce position sizes, cut down on chasing orders, prioritize reacting to ranges and relay trades, and avoid changing judgment based on a single candle.
During the May Day holiday, what to watch is not whether prices will rise or fall, but whether volume follows through after breakouts, and whether volume continues to increase after breakdowns.
Breakouts without volume are likely just traps; breakdowns without volume could just be shakeouts.

In summary: the May Day holiday won't directly determine bull or bear markets, but it will amplify short-term noise.
During holidays, the most important thing is to control your positions and not get caught up in false moves.

Happy May Day to everyone! 🌹🌹🌹